Trends & Stats: New lodging growth cycle under way, says LE
Lodging Econometric’s mid-year analysis spotlights lodging’s new growth cycle that is well under way.
In 2013, average daily rate and revenue per available room will rise to exceed previous cyclical highs, perhaps occupancy rate, as well. LE’s metrics have shown the same marginal but steady improvements as other sectors of the economy, such as: technology, autos, housing and more.
After the election, LE anticipates that Congress and the new administration will move to address the issues that are restraining economic growth. LE expects that in 2013, the economy and financial markets will turn more positive and be more growth-oriented, providing greater opportunity. This should further accelerate lodging’s operating statistics, mortgage lending, new hotel construction and hotel transactions, well into the back half of the decade. The underlying metrics at the end of the second quarter 2012 provide important insights for 2013 and the years ahead.
HOTELS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
• At 525 projects/66,917 rooms, room counts are up from the bottom of 387 projects/49,028 rooms for four consecutive quarters.
• At 165 projects/19,828 rooms, room counts are at the highest level in 13 quarters.
• At 555 projects/64,351 rooms, the annualized four-quarter trend line is up from the bottom for six consecutive quarters, and is at the highest level in 10 quarters.
NEW PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS
• At 352 projects/45,884 rooms, room counts are at the highest level in 13 quarters.
• At 1,180 projects/147,447 rooms, the annualized four-quarter trend line is up from the bottom for three consecutive quarters, and is at the highest level in six quarters.
LE’S NEW FORECAST FOR HOTEL OPENINGS
• LE’s new forecast for 2014 is 446 projects/48,335 rooms, which will show an impressive 31-percent increase of new rooms over the cyclical bottom set in 2011.